As Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson prepares to present the much-anticipated 2025 Mid-Year Budget Review to Parliament today, July 24, the Association of Ghana Industries (AGI) has expressed tempered expectations regarding any significant changes in fiscal policy. The AGI, a leading voice of the private sector, believes that the current trajectory of macroeconomic improvements provides little justification for major shifts in government policy at this time.
According to AGI’s Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Seth Twum Akwaboah, the industry body expects the mid-year review to focus primarily on consolidating the gains made during the first half of 2025, particularly in terms of stabilizing the macroeconomic environment and fostering industrial growth.
“If you look at the major macroeconomic indicators—inflation, the exchange rate, and related factors—the trends have been reasonably positive. We expect the review to reflect this progress and offer policy signals that inspire further growth in the second half of the year,” Mr. Akwaboah told Citi Business News.
Macroeconomic Progress Anchors Expectations
AGI’s cautious optimism is underpinned by a string of encouraging economic indicators. Chief among them is the continued appreciation of the Ghana cedi, which has remained relatively stable against major international currencies, bringing relief to importers and manufacturers alike. In addition, headline inflation has shown a sustained downward trend, having declined for six consecutive months.
According to recent data from the Bank of Ghana, inflation dropped to 13.7% in June 2025, down from 23.8% at the end of 2024. This significant deceleration in price increases has boosted purchasing power and improved business planning conditions for the private sector.
Mr. Akwaboah emphasized that such macroeconomic stability is a critical precondition for industrial growth, job creation, and investment planning.
“If we continue on this path of stability, businesses will be able to plan better, expand operations, and create much-needed jobs. That’s what industry needs—predictability and confidence in the economy,” he noted.
IMF Programme Sets Boundaries for Policy Flexibility
The AGI also acknowledged that Ghana’s ongoing programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has created a structured policy environment that limits the likelihood of major deviations in fiscal direction. Under the IMF-supported Extended Credit Facility (ECF), the government has committed to a disciplined path of fiscal consolidation, debt sustainability, and structural reforms.
“Given the IMF conditionalities, we understand that the government’s hands are somewhat tied. Therefore, we are not expecting any drastic or expansionary policies. What we are looking for are signals that the government will stay the course and continue building on what has already been achieved,” Mr. Akwaboah said.
Strong Real Sector and External Performance Bolster Optimism
Beyond macroeconomic indicators, Ghana’s real sector performance has also shown resilience. The economy recorded a 5.3% year-on-year GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025, signaling strong recovery momentum. More encouraging is the performance of the non-oil sector, which grew by 6.8%, driven by robust output in agriculture and services.
These figures suggest a broad-based recovery that extends beyond extractive industries—exactly the type of inclusive growth AGI and other development advocates have long championed.
On the external front, Ghana’s trade and current account positions have improved considerably. In the first half of 2025, the country posted a provisional trade surplus of US$5.6 billion and a current account surplus of US$3.4 billion—more than double the US$1.4 billion and US$283 million, respectively, recorded during the same period in 2024. These improvements have significantly strengthened Ghana’s external buffers, with gross international reserves increasing to US$11.1 billion, equivalent to 4.8 months of import cover, up from US$8.98 billion at the end of 2024.
A Call for Stability and Industry-Supportive Policies
In light of these positive developments, AGI is hopeful that the 2025 Mid-Year Budget Review will reinforce the government’s commitment to stability, investment-friendly reforms, and the creation of an enabling environment for businesses.
“What we hope to hear are policy directions that reinforce business confidence—stable inflation, prudent fiscal management, and continued exchange rate stability. These are the foundations upon which industries can thrive,” Mr. Akwaboah concluded.
The mid-year review is expected to shed more light on how the government intends to maintain this stability amid fiscal tightening and guide Ghana through the remainder of 2025, especially under the IMF programme. The business community, development partners, and the general public will be watching closely for signals that affirm continuity, accountability, and growth.
Edited by: KENNEDY AMPONSAH NTI
EASTERN FM 105.1 MHZ
